A flaming-hot housing market saw an unprecedented 24% price increase since the outbreak of the virus last year. The market is just beginning to slow down a bit because Buyers are beginning to push back at the sky-high prices.
Some doomsayers would like you to believe that because housing went up too fast, it must now come down. But that is in opposition to what the data demonstrates. When examined more carefully, the 2021 housing market and the 2008 housing bubble are very different bull markets.
Consider the complete and utter frenzy leading up to the financial crisis back in 2008. Homebuilders went on a building spree so that when the market started to slow in 2006, the surplus of new construction put negative pressure on prices. It took years for housing to shake that glut.
How does that compare with 2021? They are almost polar opposites. Burned by the 2008 crisis, Homebuilders have been extremely conservative in recent years (2013-2021) averaging 1.2 million monthly housing starts as opposed to the 1.7 million per month leading up to the Great Recession. In fact, our nation is under-built by about 3.8 million single-family homes according to Freddie Mac.
The rush of Buyers during the pandemic only exacerbated the housing problem and between April 2020 and April 2021, housing inventory fell over 50% leaving us at a 40-year low.
Although the Fortune report quoted in this article is based on the entire nation, we have seen the extremes of this phenomenon in California. Sure, price growth may go flat here or even fall slightly, but a 2008-style crash is improbable without it.
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