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North Bay Real Estate Market and the U.S.Economy

North Bay Real Estate Market and the U.S.Economy

The red-hot North Bay real estate market has responded to the climbing interest rates and growing inflation by slowing sales. For rates to go from 3% to 6% is a shock to the market. The current market still favors Sellers, however.

In the North Bay year-over year property sales in May were down in Sonoma County by 22% (385 homes sold); Napa County 12.1% (105 homes sold); Marin County by 10.1% (178 homes sold). In Solano County sales rose 5.8% with 328 homes sold in May. This increase was not a surprise to CAR Chief Economist, Oscar Wei, who knows that Solano County is the most affordable county in the North Bay.

There is a definite shift in the market. Buyers are realizing that they don’t need to put in an offer on the first thing they see, and there is a decrease in multiple offers and homes selling for more than the asking price. It is note-worthy that the economists see this as a shift to a more balanced market rather than a crash like we witnessed in 2005 to 2012.

In May, 16% of homes in the three counties sold at reduced prices, and by late June that number jumped to 19%. There is a slowdown of both the low end and the high-end Buyers. People are still buying, just not at the frenzied rate they have been in recent years.

Different demographics have influenced the real estate market in recently, but that could be changing. With baby boomers becoming seniors who may be more reluctant to downsize because of higher interest rates, much of the market will belong to the millennials.

We know that there will always be a demand for housing in the North Bay. So, while things may not be as hectic as they have been for the past 3 years, we can relax a bit and welcome the more stable, balanced market that we are experiencing today.

Whether it be a Buyers’ or a Sellers’ market, Sun Pacific Mortgage is here to offer our privately funded loans to those borrowers who need a fast close or have been turned down for a conventional mortgage. Give us a call at 707-523-2099 or visit our website at www.sunpacificmortgage.com to see what we can do for you.

What Happened in the Bay Area Real Estate Market During the 2nd Quarter?

What Happened in the Bay Area Real Estate Market During the 2nd Quarter

As one Realtor put it, “If the stock market is like a jet skier on a triple espresso, the real estate market is like a giant cargo ship that decelerates and turns slowly.”

This is what we are seeing in the Bay Area as mortgage rates increase and inflation is climbing. Because of the sharp turn in the market, it is better to consider a three-month average than a single month’s data. The following data gives the Bay Area market results in each county for April, May, June:

Q2 2022 Medium Sales Price:

San Mateo: $2,200,000

San Francisco: $2,000,000

Marin: $1,995,000

Santa Clara: $1,880,000

Alameda: $1,460,000

Santa Cruz: $1,350,000

Contra Costa: $975,000

Napa: $973,000

Monterey: $875,000

Sonoma: $860,000

Solano: $625,000

With numbers like this, Bay Area properties are not likely to plunge into severe depreciation any time soon. Real estate continues to be the most stable of all investments according to the economists. Relax, no need to panic. This is just a part of the natural real estate market cycle we have experienced time and again.

Give Sun Pacific Mortgage a call at 707-523-2099 if you need a fast, Private Money loan or you are an Investor looking to maximize your returns, through Trust Deed investments.

The No.1 Reason Why the Housing Market Won’t Crash

The No.1 Reason Why the Housing Market Won’t Crash
A flaming-hot housing market saw an unprecedented 24% price increase since the outbreak of the virus last year. The market is just beginning to slow down a bit because Buyers are beginning to push back at the sky-high prices.

Some doomsayers would like you to believe that because housing went up too fast, it must now come down.  But that is in opposition to what the data demonstrates. When examined more carefully, the 2021 housing market and the 2008 housing bubble are very different bull markets.

Consider the complete and utter frenzy leading up to the financial crisis back in 2008. Homebuilders went on a building spree so that when the market started to slow in 2006, the surplus of new construction put negative pressure on prices.  It took years for housing to shake that glut.

How does that compare with 2021?  They are almost polar opposites.  Burned by the 2008 crisis, Homebuilders have been extremely conservative in recent years (2013-2021) averaging 1.2 million monthly housing starts as opposed to the 1.7 million per month leading up to the Great Recession. In fact, our nation is under-built by about 3.8 million single-family homes according to Freddie Mac.

The rush of Buyers during the pandemic only exacerbated the housing problem and between April 2020 and April 2021, housing inventory fell over 50% leaving us at a 40-year low.

Although the Fortune report quoted in this article is based on the entire nation, we have seen the extremes of this phenomenon in California. Sure, price growth may go flat here or even fall slightly, but a 2008-style crash is improbable without it.

If you are looking to invest your money in a more secure place than a volatile stock market, consider becoming a private investor with Sun Pacific Mortgage.  We offer private money mortgages to worthy Borrowers who need to close quickly or cannot qualify for a conventional loan.  All the Borrowers and loans have been carefully vetted before being promoted to our investor community.  Go online to www.sunpacmortgage.com to learn more about our programs.

Are We Looking at Deceleration or Depreciation?

You are probably well aware that houses have skyrocketed recently, but did you know that this has been true for the past 122 consecutive months? Much of this increase was due to the abundance of Buyers and the lack of Sellers. Experts are forecasting ongoing appreciation, just at a decelerated pace. In other words, prices will keep climbing, just not as fast as they have been.

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, identifies a key reason why home prices won’t depreciate or drop:

“In today’s housing market, demand for homes continues to outpace supply, which is keeping the pressure on house prices, so don’t expect the prices to fall.

Experts are forecasting ongoing appreciation, just at a decelerated pace. In other words, prices will keep climbing, just not as fast as they have been. The graph below shows home price forecasts from seven industry leaders. Note that none are forecasting prices to fall. 

Are We Looking at Deceleration or Depreciation?Looks like Investors and Buyers alike remain in an outstanding position to make substantial profits from their investments.

Having been in business for 34+ years, we are always looking for new Investors to join our team. Real estate continues to be one of the strongest investments, so if you or someone you know are interested in making up to 9-13% return on investments, give us a call at 707-523-2099 or fill out the form on our Investor website page here: https://www.sunpacificmortgage.com/invest-in-trust-deeds/

San Francisco and Bay Area Real Estate Report for May

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Even though we have been bombarded with negative headlines for over a month, the housing market in the North Bay has remained strong. San Francisco Bay Area has seen over 30% growth for residential real estate since the pandemic! That is huge! It has been on a 10-year bull run. Even though real estate markets have historically been on a 7-year cycle, this wild ride has been constant for 13 years! Hard to believe? Look at the statistics for single-family home sales for May:

San Francisco:

Avg. sale price: $2,410,387 (April $2,502,144)
Avg. list price: $2,148,931
Avg. Days on Market: 18
Homes sold: 282

Menlo Park:

Avg. sale price: $4,009,035
Avg. Days on Market: 10 (9% over asking)

Foster City:

Avg. sale price: $2,529,181
Avg. Days on Market: 11 (18% over asking)

Belmont:

Avg. sale price: $2,925,721 (15% over asking)
Avg. Days on Market: 10

San Carlos:

Avg. sale price: $3,052,856 (13% over asking)
Avg. Days on Market: 7

San Mateo:

Avg. sale price: $2,302,186 (15% over asking)
Avg. Days on Market: 11

Burlingame:

Avg. sale price: $3,289444 (9% over asking)
Avg. Days on Market: 9

 

Most analysts believe that the secondary and tertiary markets will be hit harder going forward, and that prices will begin to come down slightly for every market. Sellers will need to get realistic about our new normal and Buyers will need to be patient. Buyers will still need to pull the trigger on homes they love when the opportunity arises.

If you are interested in getting into this strong wealth builder but have been disqualified for a loan now that rates have risen, give Sun Pacific Mortgage a call at 707-523-2099 or visit our website www.sunpacificmortgage.com. We have been in business supporting California Homebuyers for 34 years with private mortgages. Our investors are standing by ready to make your dreams of home ownership come true.

Southern California Housing Market Update

Home prices in the first quarter rose 19.1% compared to a year ago and were 4.2% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2021. It appears as if the spike in mortgage rates during the first quarter has not dampened the market and, with more buyers than sellers, the market is still extremely hot.  The region saw double-digit price growth across the board, with Orange County again leading the way.

Of note is that home prices in Riverside County rose 10.7% compared to the prior quarter.  Rising mortgage rates and prices are certain to push affordability down even further, which is concerning. The question remains whether rising financing costs will start to slow the market. For the time being, this does not appear to be the case.

image1 1   In the first quarter of the year, the average time it took to sell a home in the region was 22 days, which was 6 fewer days than a year ago but 1 day longer than in the final quarter of 2021.  Homes in San Diego County continue to sell at a faster rate than other markets in the region. In the fourth quarter, it took an average of 16 days to sell a home there—two fewer days than it took a year ago.

The other four counties also saw the time it took to sell drop compared to a year ago, but market time rose very modestly in Riverside, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino counties compared to the fourth quarter of 2021.  Limited inventory combined with growing buyer demand is creating a very tight market. Any increases we see in the number of homes for sale in the coming months is not likely to be enough to satisfy buyers.

Despite low inventory levels and rising mortgage rates, the housing market continues to perform very well in Southern California. The spike in mortgage rates has yet to have a significant impact on price growth or demand; however, it will be interesting to check back in the second quarter because if there is an impact, that’s when we would likely see it.

If you find yourself wanting to purchase in California, give family owned and operated Sun Pacific Mortgage a call now at 707-523-2099 or visit our website at www.sunpacificmortgage.com. We can quickly get you pre-approved so you can present yourself as a serious Buyer when you make your offer to that Seller!  We have been a private mortgage lending company, servicing all of California for the past 34+ years – and are here to help get you that dream home!

Note:  Credit for this article goes to Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner who is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level.

Real Estate Continues to be the Best Investment

Even when inflation is high like today, Americans recognize owning a home is a powerful financial decision. Because inflation has reached its highest level in 40 years, it is more important than ever to understand the benefits of home ownership. Rising inflation means prices are increasing across every commodity, and that includes goods, services, housing costs, and more. When you buy a home, you lock in your biggest budgetary item each month.

For 9 years in a row Americans have chosen real estate as the best long-term investment. The following graph depicts the results of the latest poll conducted:

image1When inflation has risen in the past, home prices have risen as well. A house is an asset that typically increases in value over time even during inflation. According to Mark Cussen, Financial Writer for Investopedia:

“There are many advantages to investing in real estate…It often acts as a good inflation hedge since there will always be a demand for homes regardless of the economic climate and because as inflation rises, so do property values…”

Whether you are a first-time homebuyer or an investor looking to increase your family’s wealth or retirement fund, look no further than property.

If you like the idea of investing in real estate but dread the headaches inherent in becoming a property owner, consider becoming a private real estate investor with Sun Pacific Mortgage. Check out our website: www.sunpacificmortgage.com or call us at 707-523-2099. We are a family owned and operated company which has been in business for almost 34 years. We provide well-vetted opportunities, and you provide the funds to allow qualified borrowers to purchase or refinance their homes anywhere in California.

North Bay Real Estate Statistics for May 2022

Sonoma County Coming Out on Top in Move North

With interest rates rising and inventory falling, it is no surprise that we found this May very different from last May.  Here’s a snapshot of what happened in three of the North Bay counties last month in single-family residence sales:

Sonoma County: 

  • 492 Sold (22% fewer than 2021)
  • 416 New Listings (40% fewer than 2021)
  • 396 Closed Escrow (30% fewer than 2021)
  • 504 Homes left at end of May

Marin County:

  • 231 Sold
  • 185 New Listings (37% fewer than 2021)
  • 230 Closed Escrow
  • 174 Homes left at end of May (16% fewer than 2021)

Napa County:

  • 103 Sold
  • 87 New Listings
  • 117 Closed Escrow
  • 195 Homes left at end of May (17% fewer than 2021)

Marin County remained the hottest of all 7 North Bay counties.  The experts expect more inventory to appear from now until the end of August, which might improve the picture to a degree in spite of expected increases in interest rates.

If you are looking to purchase or refinance in these tight markets and have been turned down for a mortgage at a bank or lending institution, give Sun Pacific Mortgage a call at 707-523-2099 or visit our website at www.sunpacificmortgage.com.  We offer privately funded loans based on equity, not credit scores.  As an added bonus, we are FAST!  Most loans fund in less than a month.  Buying and refinancing can be a torturous process, or it can be smooth sailing with Sun.

Current State of the Market – A Message from the Broker – June Edition

Over the last thirteen years real estate has been in a Bull market, which changed the way that we look at the 7-year cycle that previously rang true. This heating and cooling of the market, low interest rates, and removal of subprime loans has created something better and different than before.

Some of the gains have been:

  • Larger equity increases across the entire state
  • Record low default and foreclosure rates
  • High demand / Low Inventory
  • An increase in well qualified borrowers

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As we addressed in the first State of the Market, (which you can read here: pt. 1), top economic experts do not foresee a bubble situation. The market gains do not support it.

Now in June, Private Money Lending has remained unchanged. In fact, you could say that the miserabilism and rising rates have increased the benefits of our loan programs. Hard Money rates are constant and now overlap with conventional lenders who are tightening their lending requirements.

This has created a prime opportunity for Direct Private Lending and brought in a higher frequency of qualified Borrowers. So here is a recap of our last month:

  • In May, our investors helped fund over $18 million in loans at an average interest rate of 9.5%.
  • This is up from April’s $17 million at an average of 10.2%*.

*Note that lower rates are granted to Strong Borrowers with Low LTV.

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While talk of inflation, recession, and panicked markets continue to consume the energy of the media – remember that real estate continues to be strong. The last two weeks in our local market had some of the highest amount of new listings coming on the market in a very long time.  Buyers are flocking at open houses.  One we went to last weekend had over 30 buyers touring the house at the same time.

The market may be changing and look different, but there is a reason why mortgages are used to hedge problems in the economy. It’s because of the strength in real estate.

Why is there a housing shortage?

housing shortgageOne of the hottest topics in the world of real estate today is the shortage of available homes.  There are just too many Buyers and not enough Sellers.  This means good news for Sellers, not so much for Buyers.  But as life begins to return to normal, that may begin to change.

If we look for the root cause(s) of this shortage, we find the factors that contributed to this problem and what the future might hold as a remedy.

Where did the shortage come from?  Don’t blame the rush of Buyers wanting more “home office friendly” dwellings.  This low supply was a product of the lack of new homes built over the past decades.

Historically, builders completed an average of 1.5 million new housing units per year.  However, the building gap in the U.S. totaled more than 5.5 million in the last 20 years.  To correct this shortfall, new construction would need to accelerate to more than 2 million housing units per year, according to The National Association of Realtors.

When we look at existing homes, the latest reports indicate a positive housing supply growing gradually month-over-month showing that things are beginning to shift.  Some experts are optimistic enough to say that we may have turned the corner.

Here in California, it is still a great time to sell.  Growing companies, families wanting more house and space for joint work-live situations, Californians who moved away starting to move back, these are all reasons real estate remains strong and more homes are being built!

If you are hesitant to put your home on the market because you fear you will not find a replacement, consider a Bridge Loan from Sun Pacific Mortgage.  Accessing your present home’s equity, you would be poised to present a very strong offer on your new property.  This very popular private money loan would allow you a quick close with a cash offer, something every Seller is looking for at this time.

Give us a call at 707-523-2099 or email us through our website at www.sunpacificmortgage.com to see what we can do for you to ease the tension of selling and buying in these competitive times.

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